SEZIM GUVERCINEARTHQUAKE SCIENTIST
CURRENT PROJECTS

From fault physics
to seismic hazard.

My current research investigates how the physical properties of active faults control earthquake behavior and how long-term fault dynamics can be incorporated into seismic-hazard assessment.

Fault materialsFrictional behaviorEarthquake cyclesRupture populationsSeismic hazard
PROJECT 01

Linking earthquake physics
to seismic hazard

From simulated earthquake cycles to time-dependent hazard

Physics-based earthquake-cycle simulations generate thousands of years of physically consistent earthquake sequences, providing information about rupture extent, recurrence, segmentation, and interactions between successive earthquakes.

I am developing approaches that use simulated earthquake populations directly in seismic-hazard analysis, connecting long-term fault dynamics and earthquake history to the likelihood of future rupture scenarios.

Published Main Marmara Fault simulation figure
Published example of physics-based earthquake-cycle modeling.
RESEARCH PATHWAY
  1. Physics-based fault model
  2. Earthquake-cycle simulation
  3. Long-term simulated earthquake catalog
  4. Condition on earthquake history
  5. Time-dependent seismic hazard
KEY QUESTIONS

How does long-term fault behavior shape seismic hazard?

How can earthquake history modify the likelihood of future simulated ruptures?

How can physically generated earthquake catalogs inform seismic-hazard assessment?

METHODSPhysics-based earthquake-cycle simulations · Synthetic earthquake catalogs · Rupture statistics · Renewal models · Time-dependent seismic hazard
FROM FAULT-SCALE DYNAMICS BACK TO THE MATERIALS THAT CONTROL THEM
PROJECT 02

Frictional properties of the
East Anatolian Fault

From natural fault rocks to fault-scale earthquake behavior

The East Anatolian Fault contains diverse fault-zone rocks along a major active plate boundary. I investigate their frictional behavior under controlled laboratory conditions designed to reproduce pressure, temperature, stress, and fluid conditions relevant to natural faults.

High-pressure, high-temperature hydrothermal friction experiments provide constraints on the transition between stable sliding, creep, and frictional instability and help connect laboratory-measured frictional behavior with variations observed along natural fault systems.

Sezim collecting fault-rock samples in the field
Field sampling
Sezim working with a hydrothermal laboratory apparatus
Laboratory experiments
KEY QUESTIONS

How do natural fault rocks behave under seismogenic conditions?

How does frictional stability evolve with pressure, temperature, and fluid conditions?

Can laboratory-measured friction help explain spatial variations in creep and earthquake behavior?

METHODSNatural fault rocks · Hydrothermal triaxial experiments · High pressure & temperature · Velocity-step experiments · Frictional constitutive behavior
ONE RESEARCH PROGRAM
Natural faultsFault rocksFrictionEarthquake physicsEarthquake cyclesSeismic hazard

PROJECT 02 Fault rocks → Friction → Fault behavior

PROJECT 01 Earthquake physics → Earthquake cycles → Seismic hazard

One connected research question

How do the physical properties of active faults ultimately shape earthquake behavior and seismic hazard?